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In this article Westminster investment strategist Peter Lucas discusses the Four Quadrants, a framework we use in our investment process. The Four Quadrants captures different macro variables into four distinct quadrants with each one having different implications for asset allocation.
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In this article Westminster investment strategist Peter Lucas considers recent developments in the bond markets. Peter believes that we are fast approaching a tipping point between profligate governments and increasingly demanding investors, with any policy actions likely to have unexpected consequences.
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In this article Westminster investment strategist Peter Lucas turns his attention to Britain. Despite the many problems the country faces, Peter believes all is not lost and financial assets are starting to look increasingly attractive.
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In this article Westminster investment strategist Peter Lucas considers where the next Eurozone debt crisis might come from and asks a provocative question: could France trigger the crisis, only for Germany to become the first of the euro’s two principal architects to leave the single currency?
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Westminster investment strategist Peter Lucas looks further ahead in his analysis of the challenges facing governments and their ever-growing borrowing requirements. Peter believes AI could ultimately offer a solution to government debt burdens, but the path to that solution will not be easy.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas looks again at portfolio diversification and asks a simple question: what are you actually defending against? He contends that many portfolios are positioned for low/falling inflation when rising inflation may be the bigger risk, and considers ways in…
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Westminster Investment Strategist Peter Lucas argues that the next phase of the global debt endgame has begun. He examines the US Treasury’s decision to step up purchases of long-dated government bonds, why it could mark the start of a broader attempt to suppress borrowing costs, and the implications for currencies…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas believes we are nearing a point of no return for many developed world governments. Peter has long argued that debt addicted governments and government bond markets are heading for a reckoning, and he considers that moment is approaching with significant…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas continues his look at practises in portfolio management. In this piece Peter looks at how the industry considers investment performance and argues that not enough consideration is given to how performance has actually been generated.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas looks at developments in Japan, for the first time in a while. Peter argues that a number of long running interrelated factors that have driven the yen and Japanese government bonds ever lower might finally be coming to an end.
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Following the recently concluded sporting event in the US, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers Argentina. Not the beautiful game, but Argentina’s macro situation. A country living beyond it means for many years, with stark lessons for Britain.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas delves deeper into passive investing. He argues a cap-weighted index is now a large macro bet on the persistence of the low growth, low inflation regime.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the implications of the peace agreement between the US and Iran. While headlines suggest a falling oil price will be deflationary, Peter believes that underlying economic conditions tell a different tale.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas takes a more philosophical look at risks embedded in a portfolio. Using gold as an example Peter argues that the investment industry’s focus on volatility as a measure of risk misses perhaps a much more critical aspect, that is the economic assumptions…
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With many asset markets moving higher, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas highlights some early and potentially key changes to his economic models. Peter discusses the impact of inflation and economic growth on markets and believes that signs of rising inflation could have profound…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas discusses the impact of the ongoing war in the middle east and global macro implications. Peter believes the likely inflationary impact of the war will pull forward various structural issues he has long highlighted.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas takes another look at inflation, a long running theme. Peter considers prior periods of rapidly rising prices, and how a country addresses this issue can have significant implications for local asset prices. He believes that many parts of Asia are well…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas looks at government bonds, and the role they have played in diversified multi-asset portfolios. Peter believes the traditional diversification benefit government bonds offered versus equities is unlikely to hold in the future, with potentially significant…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas has another look at the commodity complex, this time focusing on oil. Peter discusses the fundamental picture around oil, and why he believes that should history be any guide oil and energy related investments could surprise investors in 2026 .
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas takes a look at the currency markets. Peter wonders if the prevailing consensus view that the US Dollar will continue to weaken really makes sense.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas has a look at global markets and the likely direction we are headed. Peter finds that fund managers are the most overweight in years and simultaneously the most worried about bubbles. Central banks are cutting rates into above-target inflation. Currencies…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas has another look at commodities, a large and diverse asset class that he has often discussed. The recent rally in precious metals has left most of the remaining raw materials sector in the shade, but oil in particular stands out as an underperformer. With…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas examines the changing role of central banks. For three decades they convinced us they were in charge, smoothing downturns and keeping inflation tame. Soaring debts, ageing populations, and fragile bond markets mean that era is now over. The real driver of…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas continues his examination of the changing world order with reference to the political crisis in Europe, America’s fading exceptionalism, and Asia’s quiet financial revolution. He argues that what once kept Western inflation and interest rates low is now…
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter has another look at Europe and as expected it looks like the optimism at the beginning of the year was another false dawn. While all is not well in America, Peter believes investors might have to look east for outperformance going forward.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews some recent calls against the backdrop of a volatile period for markets. While he believes the equity rally is feeling somewhat long in the tooth, he has higher conviction on commodities and the US Dollar.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas has another look at inflation, a subject of critical importance to all investors and borrowers. Peter believes higher inflation is all but inevitable as indebted governments across the developed world face painful fiscal choices.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers moves in the precious metals markets. With gold having led the charge over the last couple of years, Peter believes that recent strong gains in other precious metal prices are likely a harbinger for the broader commodity complex.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers recent moves in the government bond and currency markets. Peter believes we are seeing early signs that major change is approaching.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the tumultuous beginning to April that markets are experiencing. While there is certainly much to fret over, Peter also believes markets are overlooking potential positives.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas continues his recent focus on the Old Continent where governments seem to be doubling down on the same policies that have led Europe to where it is today, in sharp contrast to policies coming out of the US.
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European equities have broken out and are outperforming for the first time in a while. But Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas believes Trump’s America-First agenda is going to make life for Europe even harder than it has been. Europe is not yet ready to reverse its longer-term trend of…
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The US bull market of the late 1990s shrugged off several bearish developments despite being expensive by historical standards. There are clear parallels with the current situation.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews various indicators that have historically been used to trade markets, with a focus on valuation. He concludes that perhaps this most talked about measure isn’t quite as useful as many imagine.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas looks back over his journey in the ever changing and turbulent world of investment management. Experience and time in the market have influenced and changed Peter’s investment beliefs.
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As the dust has begun to settle on the US election, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, discusses the options ahead for President-elect Trump. Peter suggests that in reality Trump will have few options to deal with America’s underlying structural problems.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, discusses recent major political and market developments. Peter suggests the investment landscape is broadly positive for equities, although a pause is likely ahead before we enter the traditional strong period for markets.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, discusses currency markets with a particular focus on the US dollar. Peter suggests the current universally bearish views on the greenback may be misplaced.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, discusses recent market turmoil and draws similarities and lessons from previous periods of extreme global volatility. Peter suggests current moves could pave the way to better times ahead.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, looks at President Macron’s surprise election announcement and considers the bifurcation of politics, a result of the popularism he anticipated years before it became a mainstream theme, and its impact on the markets and ultimately, the…
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, looks at Covered Call ETFs and their potential usefulness for absolute return investors by reviewing historic performance in differing market conditions.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, considers the outlook for the major asset classes based on our quantitative models.
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In this article Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, follows up a previous article looking at the relative merits of Jersey Property as an investment.
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In the middle of 2020, I wrote a series of articles outlining my medium/long term view on the economy and financial markets. I would like to revisit what I said back then and to bring the story up to date.
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Down but not out: value and the FTSE 100 have given back some of their 2021-22 outperformance, but the long-run prospects for both are much brighter according to Westminster Asset Management’s Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas believes there is an ill wind blowing for risk assets, but do not despair. The onset of recession will start the countdown for the next buying opportunity.
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Following a period of mixed signals from economic data and the markets, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas believes the much anticipated economic slowdown is imminent.
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Our Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, ex-Landlord and previous Chair of the Jersey Landlords Association considers the outlook for Jersey property investment in Part 2 of a 2 Part series.
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Our Investment Strategist, Peter Lucas, ex-Landlord and previous Chair of the Jersey Landlords Association compares property investment to financial investment in Part 1 or a 2 Part series.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas thinks risk assets have gotten a little ahead of themselves, but the outlook for a recovery later next year is building.
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After an extraordinary few weeks in the markets, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers where we are in the cycle and some potential investment opportunities.
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Investors have enjoyed a strong bounce off of Junes lows. Strategist Peter Lucas considers the prospect of a soft landing and where markets may go from here.
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Senior Investment Director Ben Shenton opines on the changing economy and its effects on our lives and the way we invest.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas discusses market concerns shifting from inflation to growth as central banks tighten policy. Easing inflation will ultimately set the scene for a change in Fed direction and an asset price recovery.
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Energy and oil prices in particular continue to dominate much of the current cost-of-living crisis, Westminster’s Investment Strategist Peter Lucas updates his views on oil and considers the outlook for prices in the months ahead.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers recent moves in markets, inflation and the likely return of that other relic of the past: stop-go economics.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews expectations outlined in 2020 and considers how events have impacted his predictions.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reassess the investment outlook for 2022 and beyond following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine .
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In light of the dramatic moves in markets this year, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews his key predictions.
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China has finally acted to support the economy, Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers whether this easing cycle is likely to be quite different to those of the past.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the difference between bond yields and inflation and what this implies for asset prices.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the difference between bond yields and inflation and what this implies for asset prices.
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The US Dollar has been firm this year on the assumption inflation is transitory. Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas asks: ”What if it is not?”.
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Westminster Asset Management Investment Strategist Peter Lucas looks past the short term inflation outlook and considers the evidence for the longer term outlook in the forecasts for the output gap and budget deficit.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas explains why he expects to see inflation concerns resurface and how this may impact markets.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas identifies potential catalysts for inflation and the investment implications.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the impact of expected growth and inflation, key inputs into our investment process, on investment markets.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas continues to develop his outlook for bond yields and the consequent impact of higher yields on markets.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews the evidence for a turnaround in government bond yields.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas see’s the recent vaccine news as a significant sign of the expected turnaround in market leadership.
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With inflationary expectations rising our Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the impact of inflation on a variety of asset classes.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas reviews recent market action against his longer term view
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas considers the usefulness of valuation in investment timing.
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Investment Strategist Peter Lucas sees the signs that Government bond yield may be bottoming.
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Following the completion of our series on the Global Outlook by our Investment Strategist Peter Lucas, I (DZ) thought it would be interesting to tease out Peter’s (PL) shorter term expectations. This we did over a seafood salad on the balcony of the United Club overlooking Jersey’s historic Royal Square. The…
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Article 5 of a series of articles on the global economic challenges impacting investors by Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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Article 3 of a series of articles on the global economic challenges impacting investors by Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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Article 4 of a series of articles on the global economic challenges impacting investors by Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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The Global Outlook from 2020 written by Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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Article 2 of a series of articles on the global economic challenges impacting investors by Investment Strategist Peter Lucas.
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